• Politics and Poker
  

Posted: September 2, 2011

“politics and poker, politics and poker; could make a guy become a heavy smoker”

(Fiorello)

So the machine minions whine in the brilliant Runyonesque musical based on the legendary reign of the La Guardia machine in NY. Of course actually being a heavy smoker is a practical impossibility in today’s no smoking world; but politics and politicians are no different.

The “new” Congress will be back soon; the tea party Congress; the Constiutional originalists, a stern lot who demand strict construction of the Constitution, and formal adherence to rules. So intent were they on imposing this new proper order, that they ignored the small fact that they had to be sworn in as members of Congress before they could vote. They actually passed their first bill without being eligible to vote for it. Still, what’s a constitutional requirement between friends?

Never the less, they are here, and many of you have been asking what impact they may or may not have on Neuralstem, and the field of stem cell research in general. Honestly, thinking that much about this Congress would create a two pack a day habit, (if it were possible to actually smoke that many cigarettes in today’s smoke free world.) Still, I will try to answer. First we have to try to figure out what they are actually going to do?

We must remember that the Senate is still in Democratic hands (for at least the next two years) as is the White House, where the Veto pen resides (and rumor has it more than the occasional lit cigarette). So the actual damage that the new Congress can do, with legislation that it passes, is probably pretty small. Where the impact will be felt is through the budget battles to come. There are two areas where this fight could have a dramatic impact.

The first area is at the FDA, the second is at NIH. There is tremendous pressure on this Congress to deal with the serious debt problem at the Federal level.

So in their never ending quest to avoid seeing themselves in TV ads (in their reelection campaigns two years hence) actually mouthing the words “we are going to cut your (fill in the blank that effects their own constituents) they have created the Super Committee to do it for them. People are skeptical that the committee members can make a deal. While anything is possible of course, (other than smoking becoming socially acceptable again) I believe that they will make a deal, and that the fix has been in since the beginning. Fiorello would be proud. The rest is just theatre. The reason is simple, if they don’t, there will be huge (read huge) automatic cuts in Defense spending, and Everyone from both sides of the aisle on this committee has huge (read huge) home state Defense employment and economic tie ins to the military. They simply cannot and will not let that axe fall.

But…are they going to cut the FDA’s budget dramatically (reversing the additional funding of the last two years would do just that) yet still demand that they increase food safety inspections? Are they going to cut the NIH research budget and close down half the State University labs in America? I don’t think so. The military learned long ago to spread their manufacturing and other jobs throughout the Country to ensure political support. NIH has been following this model also, and I believe it will prove to be pretty successful.

Therefore, despite all the screaming, in the end, a budget deal will contain new revenues. Whether from new taxes, or the expiration of some old tax breaks, or a larger more fundamental tax reform, who knows? But there will be new revenue in the equation; mixed with some sort of across the board cuts in spending for everything else. Let’s call this the muddle through option. Whether this is a good thing, or a bad thing, is beyond the ken of this blog.

How will the muddle through option effect Neuralstem? The FDA will get a bit slower; and NIH grant money will get a little harder to come by; but we’ve never relied much on the later, and we’ll be in the same boat as everyone else with respect to the former. It will simply become the new normal. Politics and Poker? I’m not so sure, I think more like professional wrestling; lot’s of noise and posturing, but the outcomes all assured in advance.